Netflix’s Wins, Amazon’s Exodus
Good morning: In today's edition of The Industry, we look at:
A Cover Story on Netflix’s dominance.
In The Industry News: Amazon’s Gods. HBO’s Dune. Dinsey’s Charming.
Actor Spotlight: Josh Brolin is not a running man. Brian Cox may be a robot. Justin Long dives back into horror.
Tech Section: Searching for AI.
Indie Filmmaker Spotlight: The horrors of Akela Cooper and Sundance’s moths.
Let’s go!
Netflix’s monstrous Q3 earnings upset expectations. Here are their gains and losses. And the comparison to Q3 2023:
$2.36 bn profit
↑ 41%
$9.83 bn revenue
↑ 15%
5.97 M new subscribers
272.72 M total
↑ 14%
690K new subs in US/Canada
Their earnings report stated:
“On the film side, we’re generating very large audiences — making our movies some of the most watched of any studio in the world. These include The Union* (111.9M views), Rebel Ridge* (104.7M views), Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F (87.5M views).”
In an earnings interview, Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix, re-iterated his commitment to staying out of theatrical, stating:
“We believe that not making [audiences] wait for months to watch the movie that everyone’s talking about adds that value. So what we do for filmmakers is, we … bring them, the biggest audience in the world for their films, and then we help them make the best films of their life…any of those top 10 films that are as big as billion-dollar box office movies.”
To some degree, he has a point. Jeremy Saulnier’s Rebel Ridge shot to streaming superstardom. It’s not a film I believe would have found a massive audience in theaters. It’s amazingly directed, with a tactical ferocity that mints Aaron Pierre as a tidal force action hero. But there’s something very indie about the stakes that make it both wonderful and potentially allergic for a mass audience in theaters… at least nowhere close to 104 M people. Saulnier’s last film, A24’s Green Room (2015), made less than $4 M theatrically.
On the other hand, Sarandos is alienating big-time filmmakers like Emerald Fennell (Saltburn), who, despite a lucrative Netflix offer, is (most likely) taking her passion project to a traditional studio that can offer her a glitzy theatrical release.
Netflix also took some potshots at the other streamers:
“Programming for such a large, engaged audience, with so much variety and great quality, is hard. It’s why streaming services which lack our breadth of content are increasingly looking to bundle their offerings.”
This is why the 1st and 5th biggest companies in the world, Apple and Amazon, respectively, have recently agreed to bundle their streaming services.
Netflix’s launch of its ad network has also been strong. They are reporting that this lower-cost tier has driven 50% of new sign-ups in the 12 countries where it is available, with a broader launch coming in 2025.
For More:
It seems now their only existential threat is YouTube, which I’ll detail more in the Tech Section.
Full Sarandos’ Q3 earnings interview (video).
THE INDUSTRY NEWS
Looney Tunes Movie, no longer doomed, Coming to theatres: Ketchup Entertainment has acquired the North American rights to Warner Bros. Animation's The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie, a sci-fi comedy adventure starring Daffy Duck and Porky Pig, directed by Pete Browngardt. The film, follows the duo as they uncover an alien invasion plot while working at a bubble gum factory.
Originally greenlit for HBO Max, the film continued production despite HBO Max's restructuring and content write-offs, eventually finding a distributor in Ketchup Entertainment.
Now kids and kids at heart rejoice: Ketchup (Hellboy: The Crooked Man, Memory) will be released theatrically on February 28th, 2025, but not before it makes its premiere Friday at the Animation is Film Festival where it will qualify for an Oscar nomination for an animated feature. From nearly not seeing the light of day to getting an Oscar nom could ruffle some feathers over at WB. Let's see what happens.
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Exodus of the Gods: Sony and Amazon Studios' live-action adaptation of the famous God of War video game is being reworked after the departure of showrunner Rafe Judkins (creator: Amazon’s The Wheel of Time), along with writers and EP Hawk Ostby and Mark Fergus (co-writers Iron Man, Children of Men).
All three left the project over a new proposed creative direction. Last man standing is unsurprisingly Cory Barlog, the videogames director and the man responsible for God of Wars' turn from an ultraviolent monster energy to a more reflective and older series about fatherhood and godhood. He took his main character, the titular God of War Kratos, and gave him a son to look after and covered him in overwhelming guilt, rare for a video game narrative.
The recent God of War (The 4th in the series) and God of War Ragnorok acted as a sort of soft reboot, winning Game of The Year in 2018 and coming in a strong second with Ragnarok only getting beaten by Elden ring in 2023.
The story is rich and creates a world of intertwining mythology that will absolutely make for incredible television.
We just will have to wait a bit longer, fans of the franchise are no stranger to delays.
Take heart though it looks like Kratos will be appearing on Prime sooner than you think. He will be the subject of an episode in its Sony anthology series Secret Level, airing Dec 10th (trailer).
Tidbits:
Producer’s United, a newly formed advocacy group for career producers, currently with 130 members, has won well-earned additional compensation from the top studios.
The initial agreement includes:
Health insurance
Commencement Wages for development
Fees paid to producers even if projects are not greenlit
We hope the studios continue their commitment to fund these initiatives. Congrats to everyone for getting the studios to cough up the dough you deserve.
HBO’s Dune Prophesy, set 10,000 years before Dune, just dropped a full trailer. It feels a little broad, but perhaps it's only because I cherish the original Dune books, and Villeneuve’s version is so centered on Chalamet’s journey that to put the source material into a prism of different story threads is to fracture its resonance. Release date: November 17th.
Netflix doc/scripted double punch. Netflix is releasing The Lost Children from EPs Ron Howard and Brian Grazer. It’s a heart-pounding documentary about four Indigenous children who went missing after their flight crashed deep in the Columbian Jungle. The search party consisted of locals and government officials. Watch how the inhospitable terrain forges a wild search effort (Trailer). Directed by Orlando von Einsiedel (Winner: Academy Award Best Documentary Short Subject).
Release date: November 14th.
Netflix will follow this up with a scripted series.
Crystal City Entertainment (prod company: David Duchovny’s Adam the First) nabs bestseller (3 M copies sold) Then She Was Gone. Synopsis: 10 years after the aftermath of a mother’s youngest daughter’s unexplained disappearance, the still grieving mother meets a seemingly perfect man, but his nine-year-old daughter’s resemblance to her own lost child is uncanny. Catherine Steadman (Actress: Downton Abbey) is writing the script. No production dates have been set.
Bob Yerkes, a legendary Hollywood stuntman known for performing dangerous feats over a 70-year career, died at 92. He doubled for stars like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Charles Bronson, performing iconic stunts in Back to the Future, Return of the Jedi, and more. He will be missed.
Cancellations:
AMC’s Parish (after one season)
Renewals:
Apple TV+’s Shrinking (Season 3)
Rick and Morty (Seasons 11 and 12)
Season 8 teaser
King’s Prince. Alright, all you Dinsey fanatics. Paul King (dir: Wonka, Paddington 1, 2) is working on a Prince Charming film. The director is virtually minting studios money with Wonka grabbing Warner Bros. $634 M at the box office…that’s a lot of chocolate. We’re looking forward to seeing what he comes up with this.
THE ACTOR SPOTLIGHT
Netflix’s $320M The Electric State looks a little bland, but I’m excited by the supporting cast:
Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO)
Jason Alexander (Seinfeld)
Woody Harrelson (Natural Born Killers)
Anthony Mackie (Captain America)
Brian Cox (Sucession)
Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)
Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad)
Stanley Tucci (The Devil Wears Prada)
That’s A-level talent accompanying the actual A-list stars Millie Bobbie Brown and Chris Pratt.
Here’s the synopsis:
In a reimagined version of 1997. With humans isolated in their VR helmets and a continuing battle against a strange breed of monstrous drones in the wake of a technological meltdown, a teenage girl named Michelle (Millie Bobbie Brown) and a robot travel the West Coast of the U.S in search of the girl's missing brother, helped by Keats (Pratt), a veteran of war who became a long-haul trucker.
We only get snippets of the supporting cast in the trailer: Esposito looks like he’s a robot, Quan a long-haired forlorn sidekick, Tucci some sort of evil overlord, and the rest may or may not be voice acting for the robots that populate the film.
It’s due out in March 2025. The director is the Russo Brothers (Avengers: Endgame).
Here’s the trailer set to… Oasis’ Champagne Supernova in case you miss their reunion tour.
The Running Man, Hunger Games, Black Mirror’s White Bear. These films and shows present futuristic worlds where a Roman Empire mindset prevails, entertaining the masses by showcasing society's marginalized fighting for survival.
The Running Man (2025), to recap, follows a man named Ben Richards (Glen Powell) while he participates in a deadly game show called The Running Man, which sees him declared an enemy of the state and hunted by a ground of murderous hitmen.
The film may have found its arch-villain in Josh Brolin, who is rumored to be up for the role.
Now, to what degree that character will be the amalgamation of the mustache-twirling evil deadly reality TV show bosses in the original 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger original remains to be seen.
But Brolin brings a much-needed groundedness to a film that could easily fall into farce.
Release date: Nov 21st, 2025. Director: Edgar Wright (Baby Driver, Hot Fuzz).
Tidbits:
Judy Greer is In Memoriam. Here’s the official synopsis:
Veteran actor (Marc Maron) is obsessed with securing a spot in the Oscars' "In Memoriam" montage after receiving a terminal cancer diagnosis.
Greer will play Maron’s ex-wife. Her tremendous range includes George Bluth Sr.'s former assistant and mistress in Arrested Development and her driveling role in The Descendants (2011).
There is sacred vulnerability to her performances.
In Memoriam, a dark but funny look at ego, humility, and legacy, will be directed by Rob Burnett and produced by Invention Studios. It started shooting earlier this week in LA.
Justin Long is starring in Night Patrol, a horror film. In it, he plays a night patrol officer who confronts a street gang that harbors a horrific secret that endangers the residents. I loved Long in Barbarian (2022), another horror film in which he played the most delightful exaggeration of himself, so it’ll be great to see him take on a role in the same genre. Night Patrol is aiming for a 2025 release.
Just when we are all tired of multiverses, Always Sunny in Philadelphia and Abbott Elementary are doing a crossover event that brings us back in. The family-friendly ABC hit series, crossover with the decidedly not family-friendly chaos of Always Sunny should be…interesting. Made possible by Disney, this crossover combines both Philly-based shows, airing alongside It’s Always Sunny Season 17.
Creator Rob McElhenney shared a photo from the set.
Season 17 of Always Sunny officially started filming last week.
TECH SECTION
“I don’t want to feel anything.” That’s what I told myself after I finished watching Meta AI’s promotional video on their AI Movie Gen tool.
But invariably, I did because it was evocative of my own childhood, running around making movies in my house and neighborhood.
Meta partnered with Aneesh Chaganty (dir: Searching), who created a video showing the AI tool's utility. In short, he took his flip-cam movies from when he was a little kid and ran them through the AI tool, replacing the backgrounds of his home and neighborhood with bank vaults and moonscapes (i h8 AI video here). I wanted to cry and tear my hair out at the same time.
If you watch Meta’s three-minute product launch video, Jason Blum (Blumhouse CEO) talks about how filmmakers will no longer have budget constraints because they’ll be able to set their films anywhere.
What is wild is that the cornerstone of creativity comes from limitations. Independent cinema would not exist if filmmakers didn’t have to be hyper-resourceful and focused to come up with stories.
Blumhouse itself got its start with Paranormal Activity, which is entirely constrained to a house. That film made close to $200M off a 15K budget.
I’m not sure how these tools allow young filmmakers to maximize their creativity… instead, they’re outsourcing their energy of imagination to an AI. I think we need to keep these tools away from young filmmakers until they learn to develop their own aesthetic interests.
Rant over… for today.
We got a glimpse into Netflix’s philosophy on AI. In an earnings interview, Ted Sarandos, Netflix CEO, discussed:
“I think that the history has been the entertainment technology that worked hand in hand throughout the history of time. And it's very important, I think, for creators to be very curious about what these new tools are and what they can do.”
He went on to say that their shows benefit from improving the quality of them, not making them “a little cheaper.”
If Sarandos believes that this technology will not displace cognitive labor, I think he’s wholly incorrect. But whether or not creators fall victim to the fallacy of AI’s ease of use and speed to supplant their own inspirations remains to be seen. If he is a stalwart for quality, we should be in a safe space.
Separately, Sarandos discussed the company's biggest existential threat:
“We compete directly with YouTube for people's time for the time they spend on the TV screen. But we have very different strengths. And we continue to invest in ambitious premium content to grow our shared engagement.”
That, of course, is their primary point of difference, their high-quality shows, home to top filmmakers.
He continued:
“[Netflix and YouTube] are complementary as well. So we put up our trailers on YouTube and they get a lot of out of viewing, which is great because it drives a lot of viewing on Netflix.”
YouTube has the largest share of streaming, 26% larger than its closest rival, Netflix, and 3x larger than Amazon, with 2.5B active users (80M paid), user-generated content, premium video channels (ABC, AMC, BBC, Disney, ESPN, Fx, Paramount), and now the NFL. Their revenue Q2 2024 was $8.66 bn, a little shy of Netflix’s Q2 $9.55 bn.
INDIE FILMMAKER SPOTLIGHT
Horror writer Akela Cooper (Co-writer: M3gan) is writing a new film, The Lot. The source material is a horror comic book by the publisher Bad Ideas.
The synopsis revolves around Aviva Copeland, a black woman who just landed a job shaping up a Hollywood studio:
Her plan to refurbish and reopen a shuttered soundstage uncovers a buried secret: a legendary filmmaker, obsessed with authenticity, hired actual cult members to perform a real-life occult ritual for his latest horror masterpiece. Now the executive must deal with a reawakened evil in the most vicious pit of vipers — a Hollywood studio lot.
Seems fun and self-reflexive. If anyone can do the material justice it is Cooper who is also writing M3gan 2 and co-wrote Nun 2 (2023) and Malignant (2021).
Brian Cox steps into the director’s chair. Although his TV directing debut was for a single episode of HBO’s Oz (2000). His feature directorial debut is Glenrothan about two estranged brothers who must confront the past and each other in Scotland when it becomes their duty to take over their family’s whiskey distillery. Cox and Alan Cumming play the brothers (first look still).
The CEO of Protagonist Pictures, who is doing sales for the film, stated:
“Glenrothan is a poignant, funny and powerful story about the universal themes of family and heritage, set against the stunning backdrops of Scotland and steeped in the world of whisky.”
They’re launching the film at AFM. I don’t know why they even need a sales agent. If they get Cox to go into meetings with the Succession sides, he should be fine.
Tidbit:
Nutcrackers, starring Ben Stiller and directed by David Gordon Green (The Exorcist: Believer), gets a release date from Hulu who bought the film out of TIFF for eight figures.
Synopsis:
In the most unlikely of places, four siblings find a loving shelter in an unexpected turn of circumstances. This endearing comedy-drama draws inspiration from actual events and deftly crafts a gripping story that unites everyone.
The comedy-drama will be released on November 29th.
I Am Martin Parr is a spicy documentary about the titular legendary photographer who turned trashy culture into high art with his trained lens. He saw the world differently and this doc showcases the full breadth of his work. Dogwoof is doing sales. Clockwork Orange vibes in the trailer. It premiered yesterday at the Rome Film Festival. No distributor or release date.
Nocturnes, the moth documentary that fluttered in and scooped up Sundance’s World Cinema Craft Award, has a trailer. Moths have been on the planet for 300 million years and have survived extinction event after event. What is their allure, and what can we learn from them? The documentary asks these questions and features famous moths, such as the species in Silence of the Lambs, and some extreme closeups of the insects that would make a post-May December Todd Haynes proud.
Alvin Rakoff, the veteran Canadian filmmaker best known for films like A Voyage Round My Father (1982, trailer) starring Laurence Olivier, has passed away at 97. Rakoff's work in film and TV, including the Emmy-winning Call Me Daddy (1967, starring Donald Pleasence). His ability to adapt complex stage plays to the screen cemented his reputation as a pioneering voice. He will be missed.
ON THIS DAY
1966. Persona by Ingmar Bergman, starring Bibi Andersson and Liv Ullmann, was released.
That’s all for the week. See you Monday with a big announcement!
Written by Gabriel Miller and Spencer Carter.
Editor: Gabriel Miller.
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