Avatar, Sydney Sweeney and Timothée Chalamet
Box Office Trends 12/21
In today's Box Office Breakdown, we analyze six new releases:
20th Century’s Avatar: Fire and Ash
Angel Studios’ David
Lionsgate’s The Housemaid
Paramount’s The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
A24’s Marty Supreme
Searchlight’s Is This Thing On?
Highlights:
Avatar: Fire and Ash underperforms the previous Avatar film, and why it doesn’t matter
Angel Studios’ top opening of all time, and what it means for the future of faith-based films
Sydney Sweeney’s top opening of all time, and A24’s best per-screen average of any film since 2016
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20th Century’s Avatar: Fire and Ash took #1 at the box office with $88M domestic. Internationally, it made $257M, bringing its worldwide total to $345M.
The Avatar films are box office rocket ships, with the first film taking the crown of the highest-grossing film of all time, including its re-release.
Fire and Ash opened better than the first Avatar, but dropped from the previous Avatar film:
Avatar (2009)
$73M domestic opening (vs. Fire and Ash’s $88M)
$159.2M international opening (vs. Fire and Ash’s $257M)
$232.2M worldwide opening (vs. Fire and Ash’s $345M)
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)
$134M domestic opening (vs. Fire and Ash’s $88M)
$301M international opening (vs. Fire and Ash’s $257M)
$435M worldwide opening (vs. Fire and Ash’s $345M)
Fire and Ash dropped 34.3% domestically and 14.6% internationally from The Way of Water.
However, the total gross of an Avatar film cannot be determined by its opening.
Even though Avatar 2 opened nearly double that of the first film, it still grossed $420M less:
Avatar (2009)
$749.8M domestic total
$1.994bn international total
$2.74bn worldwide total
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)
$684M domestic total
$1.64bn international total
$2.32bn worldwide total
It’ll take another couple of weeks to see where Fire and Ash will land.
The production budget is $400M+.
The per-screen average was a mammoth $23.2K/screen across 3800 theaters.
Here is the trailer.
Here’s the breakdown of the rest of the top 10:
$22M - David (Angel Studios)
$78M to acquire rights to David IP (w/ Angel Studios putting in $31M cash, and the rest crowd-funded)
RT: 70%
Week 1
Trailer (animated)
This is Angel Studios' top-opening film of all time, besting:
Sound of Freedom (2023)
$19.7M opening
$184.2M domestic total
$250.6M worldwide
The King of Kings (2025)
$19.4M opening
$60.3M domestic total
$79.7M worldwide
Angel Studios picked up the David IP a few months back from Slingshot USA, which produced the popular Young David kids' animated series.
Faith-based films are becoming increasingly popular in the US, and Angel Studios leads the pack for the top films in this arena.
We expect to see major studios putting out faith-based films in the future, given Angel Studios’ proving out the model.
$19M - The Housemaid (Lionsgate)
$35M production budget
RT: 81%
Week 1
This is a sensational opening for a psychological thriller film, 2.4x larger than the average.
But, best of all, it’s Sydney Sweeney's top opening of all time for a film she stars in. Especially sweet after a few repeat box office fails:
Christy (2025)
$1.3M opening
$1.9M domestic total
$2M worldwide
Americana (2025)
$500K opening
$1.5M domestic total (estimated)
Eden (2024)
$1M opening
$1.6M domestic total
$2.8M worldwide
Interestingly, it seems people like Sweeney movies that either tilt horror (like this and Immaculate, which opened at $5.3M) or romance (like Anyone But You, which opened at $6M but made $88M domestically).
$16M - The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants (Paramount)
$64M production budget
RT: 88%
Week 1
This is the lowest opening ever for a SpongeBob movie:
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (2015)
$55.4M opening
$162.2M domestic total
$325.2M worldwide
The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (2004)
$32M opening
$85.4M domestic total
$141.1M worldwide
It’s a crowded weekend for kids’ films with Zootopia 2 and Avatar pulling in a ton of business.
Our guess is that this will continue to glide along at the box office and come close to recouping by the time it ends its box office run.
$14.5M - Zootopia 2 (Disney)
$288.8 domestic total
$1.27bn worldwide
$250M+ production budget
RT: 91%
Week 4
This is now the highest-grossing US film of 2025, and the second highest worldwide (behind Ne Zha 2).
The film dropped 44% in its week 4, slightly more than the 35.4% drop of the first film:
Zootopia (2016)
$75.1M opening
vs. $96.8M ($21.7M more) for Zootopia 2
$51.3M week 2 (↓31.6%)
vs. $61.7M ($10.4M more) for Zootopia 2
$37.2M week 3 (↓27.6%)
vs. $26.3M ($11M less) for Zootopia 2
$24M week 4 (↓35.4%)
vs. $14.5M ($9.5M less) for Zootopia 2
$341.3M domestic total
$1.024bn worldwide
Interestingly, it’s already surpassed the worldwide total of the first film, but is trailing domestically.
Disney and Pixar have consistently proved they can put out animated sequels that outperform the first film by wide margins:
Inside Out 2 (2024)
$154.2M opening
vs. $90.4M Inside Out 1
$653M domestic total
vs. $356.5M Inside Out 1
$1.699bn worldwide
vs. $859.1M Inside Out 1
Moana 2 (2024)
$139.8M opening
vs. $56.6M Moana 1
$460.4M domestic total
vs. $248.8M Moana 1
$1.059bn worldwide
vs. $643.3M Moana 1
Frozen 2 (2019)
$130.3M opening
vs. $93.6M Frozen 1
$477.4M domestic total
vs. $400M Frozen 1
$1.454bn worldwide
vs. $1.28bn Frozen 1
With the winter holidays, this film will continue to bring in big numbers.
$7.25M - Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (Universal/Blumhouse)
$108.9M domestic total
$201.8M worldwide
$36M production budget
RT: 16%
Week 3
This series is now some of Blumhouse’s most valuable IP.
However, this film is trailing the original:
Five Nights at Freddy’s (2023)
$80M opening (21% higher than 2’s $64M)
$127M week 3 total (vs. 2’s $109M)
$137.3M domestic
$291.5M worldwide
15th-highest-grossing horror film of all time
4th highest opening weekend of any horror film
Remember, Jason Blum (Blumhouse Pictures) was belittled for pursuing Five Nights at Freddy’s, a movie that originated as a video game series:
“Everyone said we could never get the movie done, including, by the way, internally in my company.”
Right now, it seems like this film may not break the first film’s sensational totals unless it really keeps plugging away during the holidays.
$4.3M - Wicked: For Good (Universal)
$320.5M domestic total
$484.2M worldwide
$350M production budget (for both parts)
RT: 67%
Week 5
At this point, Wicked 2 is tracking way behind the first film and will not reach its sensational total:
Wicked (2024)
$384.6M week 5 domestic total ($64M above Wicked: for Good)
$475M domestic total
$758.7M worldwide
Wicked 2 has also skyrocketed at the box office due to Universal’s all-out marketing, but the 2nd film hasn’t performed as well critically, which may be the reason for the large drop.
$2.4M - Dhurandhar (Yash Raj Films)
$12.4M domestic
$87.6M worldwide
$30M budget (for this and the upcoming second film)
RT: 54% (96% audience score)
Week 3
Trailer (graphic)
This is a Bollywood spy action thriller. And the first of two films.
Synopsis:
A mysterious traveler slips into the heart of Karachi's underbelly and rises through its ranks with lethal precision, only to tear the notorious ISI-Underworld nexus apart from within.
Led by the Bollywood star Ranveer Singh.
$875K - Marty Supreme (A24)
$7M domestic total
$60-70M budget
RT: 95%
Week 1
This film had a berserk per-screen average of $145.8K/screen across only 6 theaters. This is the top per-screen average of any movie in nine years, since:
La La Land (2016) - Lionsgate
$176.2K/screen - 5 theaters
And it beats A24’s top per-screen average by 40%:
Uncut Gems (2019) - A24
$107.5K/screen - 5 theaters
We’re excited to see where Marty Supreme lands at the box office as it continues to expand. A24 has been on an all-out Timothée Chalamet-fueled marketing campaign.
He’s gunning for his Oscar.
$850K - Hamnet (Focus Features)
$8.76M domestic total
$30-35M budget
RT: 88%
Week 3
Focus Features is starting to pull back on this film, cutting 132 screens (617 total). This is their major Oscar film starring Jesse Buckley and Paul Mescal.
The per-screen average is a middling $1.4K/screen. This should be nominated for a bunch of Oscars, allowing Focus to expand into more theaters.
Here are the lowest-grossing films of the week:
$4.9K - It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
Winner: Cannes Palme d’Or
$1.6M domestic total
$4.5M worldwide
$1K /screen average
Week 10
$4.4K - You Got Gold A Celebration of John Prine (Abramorama)
$57.5K domestic total
$1.2K /screen average
Week 4
$2.9K - Mistress Dispeller (Oscilloscope)
Premiere: Venice and TIFF
Oscar shortlisted
$87.3K domestic total
$128K worldwide
$359/screen average
Week 9
Searchlight’s Is This Thing On? earned $145K in its opening weekend. With a stunning per-screen average of $24.2K/screen across 6 theaters. The film premiered at NYFF and stars Will Arnett, Laura Dern, and Bradley Cooper, who also directed the film.