Taylor Swift vs. A24

Box Office Trends 10/5

In today's Box Office Breakdown, we analyze six new releases:

• Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl

• A24’s The Smashing Machine

• IFC’s Good Boy

• Bleecker Street’s Bone Lake

• Focus Features Anemone

• Neon’s Orwell: 2+2 = 5

Plus a deep dive into how Warner Bros. One Battle After Another did in its second week.

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Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl took #1 at the box office with $33M domestic. Internationally, it earned $13M for a worldwide total of $46M.

This is a sensational opening for a concert film, but nowhere close to Swift’s previous:

• Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour (2023)

  • $93.2M opening

  • $180.8M domestic total

  • $261.7M worldwide total

This is a single weekend showing for Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, so it has finished its box office run.

These concert films are gaining popularity. In the past two years, we’ve seen a spike, including some re-releases:

• Pink Floyd: Live at Pompeii (2025 re-release, Trafalgar Releasing)

  • $2.6M opening

  • $6.5M worldwide

• Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé (2023)

  • $33.9M domestic

  • $44M worldwide

• Stop Making Sense (2023 re-release, A24)

  • $5.2M domestic

  • $6.9M worldwide

Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl earned the top per-screen average of any film in the top ten this weekend with $8.9K/theater across 3702 screens.

Here’s the breakdown of the top 10:

$11.1M - One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

• $42.8M domestic total

• $101.7M worldwide

• $130-150M budget

• RT: 96%

• Week 2

• Trailer

The film dropped 49% in its second weekend. Below we break down how this tracks compared to other films from:

• Director, Paul Thomas Anderson (worse than usual)

• Studio, Warner Bros. 2025 (about average)

• Star, Leonardo DiCaprio (worse than usual)

This drop is high for a PTA film, but keep in mind One Battle After Another is in 3634 theaters (double and triple PTA’s other release):

• Magnolia (1999)

  • $3.4M week 2 (2nd week of wide release, 5th week of release)

    • 40% drop

    • 1038 theaters

• There Will Be Blood (2007)

  • $4M week 2 (2nd week of wide release, 9th week of release)

    • 14.5% drop

    • 1620 theaters

Warner Bros. has been dominating at the box office with 7 releases in a row that opened over $40M. If you average all the week 2 drops for those films it is 47%, only slightly better than One Battle After Another’s 49%.

Here are WB’s week 2 drops from lowest to highest:

• Sinners

  • 6% week 2 drop

• Weapons

  • 43% week 2 drop

• Minecraft Movie

  • 50% week 2 drop

• Superman

  • 54% week 2 drop

• Final Destination: Bloodlines

  • 62% week 2 drop

• The Conuring: Last Rites

  • 69.5% week 2 drop

For Leo last 5 films the average drop is 42.2%:

• Killers of the Flower Moon (2023)

  • 60% week 2 drop

• Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (2019)

  • 51% week 2 drop

• The Revenant

  • 20% week 2 drop (2nd week of wide release, 4th week of release)

• The Great Gatsby (2013)

  • 52.2% week 2 drop

• The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)

  • 28% week 2 drop

Right now One Battle After Another is tracking lower than what it needs to break even at the box office.

Full breakdown of the opening here: https://theindustry.co/p/leonardo-dicaprios-box-office-battle

$6M - The Smashing Machine (A24)

• $50M budget

• RT: 74%

• Week 1

• Trailer

This is a disappointing opening for the film because of Dwayne Johnson’s $6.2bn in box office returns worldwide as a leading man. This is his worst opening ever as the lead in a film.

But not too bad when compared with other A24 films with A-listers that were hoping to garner Oscar acclaim:

• The Brutalist

  • $2.6M opening (1st week of wide release on 1118 screens, 7th week of release)

• Babygirl

  • $4.5M opening (2115 theaters)

• The Iron Claw

  • $4.8M opening (2774 theaters)

The Smashing Machine’s word of mouth went from being stunning (winning Venice’s Best Director award) to so so coming out of TIFF.

$5.2M - Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie (Universal)

• $21.6M domestic total

• $32.5M worldwide

• $32M budget

• RT: 80%

• Week 2

• Trailer

This movie is based on the children’s series on Netflix, which is quite popular.

Last week this opened about 30% higher than the average family film with no sequel and should have no problem recouping.

$4.05M - The Conjuring: Last Rites (Warner Bros.)

• $167.8M domestic total

• $458.2M worldwide

• $55M production budget

• RT: 56%

• Week 5

• Trailer

After its fifth week, it is the highest-grossing film in the series by almost 50%:

• The Conjuring (2013)

  • $41.9M opening

  • $137.4M domestic total

  • $320.4M worldwide total

  • 86% RT

• The Conjuring 2 (2016)

  • $40.4M opening

  • $102.5M domestic total

  • $321.4M worldwide total

  • 80% RT

• The Conjuring 3 (2021)

  • $24.1M opening

  • $65.6M domestic total

  • $206.4M worldwide total

  • 56% RT

Critically, the current The Conjuring film is the lowest-rated of any in the pack. But the zealot-like resurgence of horror fans has catapulted this film to the highest earnings.

$3.5M - Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle (Sony)

• $124.6M domestic total

• $633M worldwide

• $20M budget

• RT: 98%

• Week 4

• Trailer

It is now the highest-grossing anime film of all time by over 25%:

• Demon Slayer 1: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train (Crunchyroll, 2020)

  • $21.2M domestic opening

  • $49.9M domestic total

  • $486.5M worldwide

• Spirited Away (2001)

  • $15.2M domestic total

  • $395.8M worldwide ($581.5M w/ inflation)

• Pokémon: The First Movie (1999)

  • $31M domestic opening ($60M w/ inflation)

  • $163.6M worldwide total ($318M w/ inflation)

The distributor, Crunchyroll (owner: Sony), controls much of the market here for popularizing Japanese anime, and they have built tremendously off the previous installment.

$3.2M - Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century)

• $687.6M domestic total

• $2.33bn worldwide

• Week 147 (3 year re-release)

• Re-release trailer

This is much lower than the re-release of the first Avatar film in 2022:

• Avatar (re-release)

  • $10.5M opening

  • $24.7M domestic total

  • $76M worldwide

There will be a few factors for the Avatar 2 re-release doing 3x less business. Including they waited longer. There were 13 years between the first Avatar’s release and the re-release.

We’re now gearing up for the Avatar 3 release on Dec 19th. And it’ll need to earn in the $2bn range for director James Cameron to keep making Avatar sequels.

$2.8M - The Strangers: Chapter 2 (Lionsgate)

• $10.7M domestic total

• $11.6M worldwide

• $8.5M budget

• RT: 16%

• Week 2

• Trailer

The 52% week 2 drop is much better than anticipated given the series low RT score and the fact that it opened much lower than the previous film in the series:

• The Strangers: Chapter 1 (2024)

  • $11.8M opening (vs. Chapter 1’s $5.8M)

  • $35.2M domestic total

  • $48.2M worldwide

  • RT: 21%

• The Strangers: Prey at Night (2018)

  • $10.4M opening

  • $24.6M domestic total

  • $31M worldwide

  • RT: 40%

• The Strangers (2008)

  • $21M opening

  • $52.6M domestic total

  • $82.4M worldwide

  • RT: 50%

An interesting pattern where each sequel seems to earn about half of what the first film in the series earned. And with The Strangers: Chapter 2 being the lowest-rated film in the series, it doesn’t bode well for the already shot Chapter 3.

Regardless, it should recoup quickly.

$2.25M - Good Boy (IFC)

• RT: 92%

• Week 1

• Trailer

This is a sensational opening for IFC.

Remember, this was a film that was not going to get a theatrical release. But the trailer went viral online and IFC decided to put it into 1650 theaters.

This ranks among IFC’s top horror films:

• Dangerous Animals (2025)

  • $1.6M opening

  • $2.7M domestic total

  • $5.2M worldwide

• In A Violent Nature

  • $2.16M opening

  • $4.2M domestic total

  • $4.6M worldwide

• Late Night with the Devil (2024)

  • $2.8M opening

  • $10M domestic total

  • $15.5M worldwide

We look forward to seeing how this does!

$1.7M - The Long Walk (Lionsgate)

• $31.9M domestic total

• $40.6M worldwide

• $20M budget

• RT: 90%

• Week 4

• Trailer

This is the 3rd highest grossing film based on a Stephen King book to open in the past two years:

• The Monkey (2025, Neon)

  • $14M opening

  • $39.7M domestic total

  • $68.9M worldwide

• The Life of Chuck (2024, Neon)

  • $224K opening

  • $6.7M domestic total

  • $16.9M worldwide

• The Boogeyman (2023)

  • $12.4M opening

  • $42.2M domestic total

  • $67.3M worldwide

It was the highest-grossing film for star Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza).

Here are the lowest-grossing films of the week:

$4.3K - Wildfire: The Legend of the Cherokee Ghost Horse 13 (Hemdale)

• $51.9K domestic total

• $1.4K/screen average

• Week 77

• Trailer

$3.2K - Peacock (Oscilloscope)

• $11.4K domestic total

• $172.6K worldwide

• $540 /screen average

• Week 3

• Trailer

$2.8K - CatVideoFest 2025 (Oscilloscope)

• $1M domestic total

• $1.2M worldwide

• $1.4K /screen average

• Week 10

• Trailer

Neon’s Orwell: 2+2 = 5 earned $26.6K in its opening weekend. The film earned the weekend’s top per-screen average with $26.6K/screen across 1 screen. It opened in the Cannes Premiere section of Cannes.

Focus Features’ Anemone earned $700K in its opening weekend. With a low per screen average of $809 across 865 screens. The film marks star Daniel Day-Lewis acting return. His first film in 8 years. Anemone premiered at NYFF and is the directorial debut of his son.

Bleecker Street’s Bone Lake earned $828.6K in its opening weekend. With a low per screen average of $782 across 1059 screens. The film is the first horror film for indie distributor Bleecker Street.