The Oscars Outliers

In my previous two articles, I’ve covered which films are likely to be nominated at this year’s Oscars and what types of productions are attractive to the Academy.

But there are always surprises - outliers that challenge our perception of an “Oscar” film and make Academy history. There are many films and performances this year worthy of nomination, but will any of these hidden gems manage to break through and gain recognition?

Best Supporting Actor - Outlier

Tahar Rahim: The Unsung Performance (Neon’s Alpha)

One of the most provocative performances I’ve seen this year is undoubtedly Tahar Rahim in Julia Ducournau’s Alpha. The film premiered in competition this year at Cannes. He plays the charismatic and mysterious uncle, Amin, whose body and soul have been battered through his devastating drug addiction. Rahim has given incredible performances that explore the fortitude of the human spirit before. Notably, he played Mohamedou Ould Slahi, a prisoner held in Guantanamo Bay for 14 years, in The Mauritanian, a breathtaking feat of acting. Alpha is no different; the level of physicality he uses when conveying the character’s deep-rooted battle is impressive.

It is a performance that would be worthy of a Best Supporting Actor nomination. Alpha has been entered into a few categories for the Oscars, however, a nomination seems unlikely. Neon, who have the North American rights to Alpha, has not set a date yet for its US release, meaning the viewership will be low by the time voting for nominations closes.

But there could be time yet.

Looking back a few years to 2023, we saw the ultimate example of an Oscar Outlier: Andrea Riseborough for a $1.5M indie To Leslie. That year, in the Best Actress category, publications buzzed about potential contenders: Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), and Ana De Armas (Blonde).

It was a surprise to many when, alongside Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, Riseborough was nominated for her role in the drama. This came about due to a last-minute grassroots FYC campaign - in fact, a livestream was held between Riseborough and Amy Adams just four hours before voting closed. Riseborough’s team called on personal contacts to help spread awareness of her powerful performance. A-listers such as Charlize Theron and Jennifer Aniston publicly praised and backed Riseborough’s performance, and her agent (Jason Weinberg) passed the film on to his Academy-affiliated clients.

If Neon wanted to do a last-minute Best Supporting Actor campaign for Rahim, they could utilise his industry connections. He has acted across from Jodie Foster, Dakota Johnson, and Benedict Cumberbatch - names that could help bolster his campaign.

Best Casting - Outlier

The Plague: IFC’s Hidden Horror Gem

This year, IFC has picked up the debut film from Charlie Pollinger, The Plague: an uncomfortable horror about the socio-politics between the children in an all-boys water polo program. Premiering at Cannes in Un Certain Regard, this film mixed body horror with the unique cruelty displayed by children.

I have written in previous articles about the Academy’s lack of interest in horror. Though this is starting to change, with both Sinners and Weapons favored to be nominated this year, it still takes a particularly special horror to break through - there have only ever been seven horror films nominated for Best Picture. The Plague is having a limited US release on 24th December. So, despite premiering at Cannes, it has a lot less buzz than Sinners or Weapons. So how could IFC go about potentially getting an Academy nod?

Best Picture seems unlikely, but the perfect category for this film could be Casting: a brand-new category as of 2026.

The casting in The Plague is incredible, with each boy perfectly embodying their role within the social hierarchy (the outsider, the new kid, the bully) while also managing to deliver a unique spark that makes it wholly their own. This new talent is balanced out with a supporting role from Joel Edgerton, who plays the empathetic coach tasked with taming the Lord of the Flies-esque drama between the boys.

The casting director, Rebecca Dealy, has proven her talent before with A24’s X. The bold slasher needed a cast that delivered charisma (Scott Mescudi), fun (Brittany Snow), and innocence (Jenna Ortega) while the lead, Mia Goth, delivered a magnificently unhinged performance. Dealy is definitely worthy of inclusion in the casting category. One of the early films she cast was Patti Cake$ (2017), and if you’ve seen the film, you know that the casting of Danielle Macdonald in the lead role is sensational (trailer). Plus, it doesn’t hurt that Rebecca Dealy works at Chrystie Street Casting, started by the now-retired Suzanne Smith (CD: John Wick, Monster’s Ball, American Psycho).

The Plague has now been nominated for Best Casting and Ensemble at the Critics Choice Award, nominated alongside heavy hitters like Sinners, Hamnet, and Wicked. IFC has taken the chance to put out an interview with Rebecca Dealy, who spoke about the casting process for the film. To keep the marketing momentum going, more press focused on Dealy and her process is key, while simultaneously utilising her connections. For example, she was the casting director for Spree starring Joe Keery, who is currently doing press for Stranger Things’ final season. Keery can talk on the importance of casting a dynamic ensemble of young actors, and so endorsement from him would be very valuable.

Alongside this, Joel Edgerton is currently campaigning for his other film, Netflix’s Train Dreams, which is expected to gain a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay; he could utilise his press opportunities to mention The Plague and Dealy’s work on the film.

Best Picture - Outlier

Resurrection: Janus Films’ Foreign-Language Masterpiece

It is becoming more common for the Academy to recognise a foreign-language film; only 20 have ever been nominated for Best Picture, but 10 of those have come in the last 7 years. However, it is still more difficult than for an English-language project.

The favorites this year appear to be Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident (Palme d’Or winner), Oliver Laxe’s Sirat (Cannes Jury Prize winner), and Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice (Venice premiering). But there are many other incredible foreign-language films from the past year.

One is Resurrection, the Mandarin-language sci-fi drama directed by Bi Gan. Premiering at Cannes and winning the Special Prize, it is a wildly unique journey into the realm of dreams and human consciousness. Its sheer innovation is something to be celebrated.

To imagine how this film could make its way to a nomination, let’s compare it to a similar production that beat the odds in 2022. Drive My Car, directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, won the Oscar for Best Foreign Film. These films both have a director in the early-to–mid stage of his career, a screening at Cannes but no top-award wins, and are both being released by indie distributor, Janus Films.

They also have something else in common: when a foreign-language film doesn’t have a big-festival win or high-profile director, a high-performing international box office is usually needed (for example, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon). Drive My Car had a low-profile release, and Resurrection is slated for a limited US release later in the month.

Janus Films doesn’t have the same marketing budget as A24, Neon, or Warner Bros - instead, buzz around Drive My Car was built organically through critics and industry members’ passion for it. It won the top prize at both the New York and Los Angeles Film Critics Circle and gained momentum from there.

The NYFCC has already taken place; however, if Janus Films focuses its marketing efforts on the LA Critics Circle and the ever-growing number of international Academy members, then a similar excitement could grow for Resurrection.

Epilogue

It can feel like the long-standing Oscar trends are an immovable staple, but all it can take is the right strategy to give an outlier a chance to make its mark on the Academy.