Trump's Tariffs: Bad for the Industry...Or Are They?
Good morning: In today's edition of The Industry, we look at:
Tariffs, Pine, and Brie.
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Trump’s tariffs… what everyone is missing.
“100% Tariff on all movies coming into US that are produced in foreign countries.”
That’s the core of the US president’s post that set off a firestorm in the industry.
On one hand, this could be the final bullet as speculation over who would be affected ran rampant:
Sony Pictures (Japan-owned studio)
Netflix (worst case scenario estimates: $3bn in costs, 20% reduction in earnings)
James Cameron (Avatar is created in New Zealand)
Hollywood productions shot worldwide (A Minecraft Movie, Gladiator II, Avengers: Doomsday, etc.)
Hollywood films shot partially overseas (Thunderbolts*, Mission: Impossible).
Oscar Best Picture Nominees (only 3 out of 10 films this year were shot entirely in the US)
Indie films that can no longer afford to shoot in the US
On the other hand, Hollywood is in dire need of a bailout.
COVID, labor strikes, an M&A hellscape, and the wildfires have crushed margins, resulting in an exodus of shoots to foreign countries where labor is cheaper (IATSE reports 10K+ job losses in 2 years) and tax incentives are higher (30% in Hungary, 25% in Bulgaria). Plus, interest in moviegoing post-COVID has waned with the streamers/social media giants gaining an asymmetrical advantage to keep people home and glued to their phones/screens. Case in point: the 2019 domestic box office was $11.4bn, with the highest post-COVID total down 20% ($9.1bn in 2023).
Hollywood’s special ambassadors, Jon Voight, Sylvester Stallone, and Mel Gibson, are no strangers to this. Gibson’s Passion of the Christ 2 is filming in Italy, and two of Voight’s latest films, The Last Gunfight (2025) and Shadow Land (2024), were made in Bulgaria.
Last week, Voight made the rounds with the Motion Picture Association, pushing lawmakers to adopt a federal production incentive (w/ no mention of tariffs). The MPA drafted two one-pagers urging Congress to create manufacturing-linked incentives for domestic employment.
If the administration really wants to help the industry, skip the punishment.
Instead, create incentives big enough to change the calculus. For instance, if the U.S. adopted a federal tax credit similar to the $7.5bn program proposed by CA Governor Gavin Newsom (23x larger than CA’s current $330M credit), the potential ROI on investment will be massive.
When CA spent $109.5M in this last round of its tax credit program, funding 51 projects (including 46 indies, which we covered in depth), they generated $347M in wages and $578M in economic activity and employed over 6,490 cast and crew.
Scaling that out, a $7.5bn incentive would generate nearly $24bn in wages and $40bn in economic activity.
Imagine this money being re-distributed to the states that have seen a mass exodus of production, like California, New York, and Georgia. A federal film fund bump that pays out 10-20% on top of the state’s incentives could be the lifeline that gives producers the confidence to return home.
That’s how you bring the business back.
THE INDUSTRY TLDR
Chris Pine will star in Lionsgate’s action-thriller Run the Night.
CAA vet John Campisi joins Untitled as partner.
Danny Feldheim joins The Walsh Co. (Napoleon) as EVP of TV.
Bryan Cranston stars in Lionsgate’s family drama Everything’s Going to Be Great.
Jenna Ortega and Robert De Niro co-star in David O. Russell’s Shutout.
HBO and A24 greenlight new comedy series Lifties, starring Jimmy Tatro.
Saban Films picks up SXSW multiverse revenge film Redux.
Spike Lee’s Highest 2 Lowest, starring Denzel, gets first teaser.
Bone Lake, a survival thriller us picked up by Bleecker Street.
The Stranger’s Case, from Angel Studios, sets a Dec. 25 release.
Animated adventure Saurus City acquired by Archstone Entertainment.
Cult classic remake The Toxic Avenger will release theatrically, uncut.
France’s Dumas: Black Devil to be sold by Pathé; trailer launches at Cannes.
THE INDUSTRY NEWS
From Lionsgate and Hidden Pictures, Chris Pine (Star Trek, Wonder Woman) is set to star in and produce Run the Night, an upcoming action film and feature directorial debut of Robert Alonzo (The Batman, Deadpool), a well-respected second unit director and stunt coordinator.
Official Synopsis:
A banker with a $10M bounty races through Amsterdam, hunted by gangs after allegedly betraying the mob. He must survive until dawn to save his family, revealing unexpected skills from his past.
Dan Freedman of Lionsgate, who led the negotiations for the deal, said:
“Chris is an incredible actor and has the perfect combination of warmth and physicality needed to bring this role to life.”
Run the Night will launch sales at Cannes.
Tidbits:
* Oh so that’s what it means: Slight spoilers but The Thunderbolts* finally explained the asterisk means after a promising first weekend and a positive response missing from Marvel's most recent work. Marketing has revealed a new secret title* the new team, formally known as the Thunderbolts, is actually the stealth launch of the New Avengers. It's a fun little marketing gimmick, though some are upset about spoilers. 88% RT score… is Marvel back?
The Walsh Company (Napoleon) has brought on Danny Feldheim as EVP of Television. The Wash Co. has recently extended its overall deal with Apple TV+. Feldheim was most recently the department head at ABC Signature and Disney Television Studios, where he oversaw multiple projects into production, including Phony with Connie Britton on Hulu and the new Holes on Disney+.
After over 30 years with CAA, longtime agent John Campisi has joined Untitled as a partner. With a career that began in the mailroom, Campisi has represented David O. Russell, Jodie Foster, and Jackie Chan, with most of his clients joining him at Untitled.
Mini Tidbits:
Benedict Cumberbatch will EP The Annecy Murders, a six-part limited series dramatizing the 2012 roadside killings near Lake Annecy, France. Production kicks off in 2026 with Cumberbatch’s SunnyMarch (The Roses) serving as one of the production companies.
Squid Game Season 3 teaser. Premiere: June 27th.
THE ACTOR SPOTLIGHT
Alison Brie gets a little too close. Brie stars in Together, the hit Sundance body-horror film that Neon snapped up for $17M.
Here’s the synopsis:
A couple's (Brie + her real-life husband Dave Franco) move to the countryside triggers a supernatural incident that drastically alters their relationship, existence, and physical form.
E.G., their bodies literally start fusing together.
What Brie captures so successfully in the film is how much she aches to be apart from her husband. She manifests a tremendous disconnected look that is in itself a horror, given her bright presence in 6 seasons of Community (clip).
Watch the fairly intense Together trailer.
Releases July 30th.
Tidbits:
Bryan Cranston’s family dynamics. We all miss Walter White, and it’s a role that’s so colossal it’s hard for any actor to get out from under it. Which is why Lionsgate’s latest Everything's Going to Be Great is a strange watch. The film centers on Cranston and his family going for broke and buying up a local theater and struggling with the cash to make it work. There’s a point in the trailer where Cranston sits his son down and fantasizes about a time when he can hand his wife (Allison Janney) a big bundle of money. Cue the meth lab? Jokes aside, it looks wonderfully heartfelt, and the project has a good pedigree. Jon S. Baird (Tetris) directs, and Lionsgate releases it June 20th after the Tribeca premiere.
Based on an adventure book by Paul McCartney, High in the Clouds has just announced an all-star cast of voices. The 3D animated film will be led by:
Celine Dion
Himesh Patel (Yesterday)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
They’re joining A-list names like Idris Elba, Ringo Starr, and Jimmy Fallon to round out the cast. Independent animation filmmaker Toby Genkel (The Amazing Maurice) is directing the feature from a script by Paddington 2 writer Jon Crocker.
Mandy Moore has joined Nate Bargatze in The Breadwinner, a TriStar comedy directed by Eric Appel (Son of Zorn). Bargatze plays a dad struggling with domestic life after his wife (Moore) strikes it big on Shark Tank. Moore, a superstar in her own right, is a natural fit for the role of a driven supermom.
Charley Scalies, beloved actor known for The Wire and The Sopranos, died at 84 after a long battle with Alzheimer’s. A Philadelphia native and former business executive, Scalies began acting in the '90s. He had a lasting impact in various gangster films, making his debut in Two Bits, and finding prominence with a beloved guest role in The Wire. He will be missed.
Shia LaBeouf will star in God of the Rodeo, a 1967-set crime thriller about a Louisiana inmate finding redemption through the prison’s first-ever rodeo. Directed by Rosalind Ross and produced by Giannina and Ridley Scott. Curious to see how the release of his volatile acting school documentary, Slauson Rec, affects the public's perception of LaBeouf.
Mini Tidbit:
Kevin Pollak joins Tulsa King Season 3 as FBI agent Musso, a series regular with a vendetta. Production is underway with Sylvester Stallone returning.
Rina Sawayama, who played the daughter of Hiroyuki Sanada in John Wick 4, is returning for the John Wick Caine Spinoff. She’s a bad ass with a bow (clip).
FESTIVALS
Jenna Ortega and Robert De Niro co-star in David O. Russell’s Shutout. The film is being launched at the Cannes Market:
Dir/Prod: O. Russell (Three Kings, American Hustle)
Prod Co: Black Bear (Sing Sing)
US Sales Rep: CAA
Logline:
An unlikely friendship is forged in the world of competitive billiards.
The film is supposed to play like The Color of Money. With Ortega playing the young pool hotshot and De Niro as the storied old-timer.
More Cannes Market films, including one that premiered at Sundance and one that Sony is backing:
https://theindustry.co/p/cannes-market-2025
INDIE FILMMAKER SPOTLIGHT / INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Lift off: Jimmy Tatro is reuniting with American Vandal co-creator Dan Lagana for Lifties, a new ensemble comedy series greenlit by HBO and co-produced with A24.
Tatro, known for his breakout in the Emmy-nominated mockumentary American Vandal, will star, co-write, and EP. Plot details remain under wraps, but the snow-set series marks another major comedy addition for HBO’s evolving slate.
This is a real reunion here, the team from American Vandal struck gold with its hilarious spoof on Netflix crime dramas. A satisfying mystery under very funny stakes, Tatro starred as a bully suspended (under house arrest), lovable, charming, and stupid -clip. With the logline being “a comedy about snow,” we don't know much about this next project, but the team behind it is worth a look.
A Revenge story that spans multiple realities: Redux. Redux will signal Kevin and Matthew McManus, Emmy-nominated directors and co-writers of American Vandal, made a triumphant return to SXSW 2025. The film was just picked up by Saban Films for North American distro.
The plot follows a grieving mother, played by Michaela McManus, who travels through parallel universes to repeatedly kill her daughter's murderer, becoming addicted to revenge. Drawing comparisons to Everything Everywhere All at Once.
In theatres later this year.
Check out the trailer here.
Tidbits:
Spike Lee’s new film Highest 2 Lowest, a reinterpretation of Akira Kurosawa’s film High & Low, has a first teaser. It looks stylish with some of the vibes of Inside Man in terms of its NYC sleekness. Denzel stars with Jeffrey Wright and A$AP Rocky. A24 and Apple Original films will release. No word on when.
Bleecker Street (Captain Fantastic) picks up the newest critically acclaimed survival thriller, Bone Lake, from Mércedes Bryce Morgan (Fixation), which is coming off its premiere at Fantastic Fest. Bone Lake follows a couple whose romantic vacation at a secluded lakeside estate is upended when they are forced to share the mansion with a mysterious and attractive couple. In theaters nationwide on Oct. 10th.
Angel Studios (The Chosen, Sound of Freedom) has set a theatrical release date for its newest feature, The Strangers' Case, a drama surrounding the Syrian Refugee Crisis. Filmmaker Brandt Andersen wrote, directed the movie, and is a seasoned producer (Everest, Lone Survivor) in addition to being an active activist who has worked extensively with refugees in Syria. The Stranger’s Case will have a limited theatrical run beginning on Dec. 25th through to Jan.
Archstone Entertainment has acquired worldwide rights to the animated feature Saurus City. The film is a family-friendly adventure story, with groundbreaking CGI, and an all-star voice cast in Ron Perlman (Hellboy), Emma Roberts (We’re the Millers), and Dennis Quaid (The Substance).
Ew Gross: The Toxic Avenger is victorious from his ferocious battle with the MPA. The gross out remake of the 80's cult classic will be released in theaters uncut, promising ULTRA/VIOLENT TOXIC CONTENT, PISS PLAY, MUTANT NUDITY, HILLARIOUS HARM AND GNARLY THEATER FUN. Trailer here.
International:
One of the most anticipated and ambitious upcoming French films is Dumas: Black Devil, from director Ladj Ly, the team behind the Oscar-nominated Les Misérables (2012), and the producers involved in French hit The Count of Monte Cristo. From Chapter 2 (Anatomy of a Fall) and Srab Films (Happening), Pathé will handle foreign sales, and given how well the distributor handled the Monte Cristo retelling, Dumas: Black Devil seems to be in very good hands.
One of Brazil’s most active international distributors, O2 Play, has acquired worldwide rights to Nimuendajú, an impactful 2D animated biopic detailing Brazil's Indigenous communities. O2 dropped a trailer ahead of Nimuendaju playing at Cannes in the prestigious Contrechamp section.
ON THIS DAY
1915. Orson Welles born in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
See you tomorrow!
Written by Gabriel Miller, Spencer Carter, and Madelyn Menapace.
Editor: Gabriel Miller.
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