Good morning: In today's edition of The Industry, we look at:
The film industry in 2026. And the bright side of 2025.
Let’s go!
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Amazon MGM Studios’ Hedda is a magnificent tragedy.
Based on the seminal work by Ibsen, the film is led by Tessa Thompson, who goes scorched earth on her party guests in the most delicious of fashions.
THE INDUSTRY 2026 FORECAST
2026 will be a year of dual disruptions in the industry.
On one hand, AI will begin to develop “agency.” As in chain of thought reasoning, that doesn’t just help, but acts by taking initiative, making decisions, and being proactive. In short, it can synthesize multiple tasks across multiple systems and mediums.
Three speculative examples:
Cold email the heads of every major production studio with a custom pitch for your film/screenplay tailored to the decision maker’s preferences and viewing habits.
Create fully AI-generated animated shows (with full AI scripts, voice, characters, environments, editing, and distribution) that become viral.
Already, Disney has licensed 200+ characters to OpenAI (creator of ChatGPT)
Automate film marketing by auto-cutting 50 trailer versions (different openings, jokes, music, taglines), then deploying them as micro-ads to segmented audiences.
2026 will also see one of the biggest mergers and acquisitions in the history of Hollywood: the sale of Warner Bros. Discovery to Netflix or possibly Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery board is in favor of Netflix’s $83bn offer, which doesn’t include their linear TV networks, which will be spun off later this year.
The hurdle for Netflix/WB will very likely be a forthcoming Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit against Netflix (302M subs) swallowing up HBO (128M subs), creating a streaming behemoth.
We’re also hearing that Netflix may shorten Warner Bros. films’ theatrical windows to just 17 days. If this happens, it would be a disaster for the industry. Although on the bright side, a duo of studios that have all committed to a big theatrical 2026 slate:
Amazon - 12 films/year
Paramount/Skydance - 15 films/year (minimum)
Paramount’s path to winning Warner Bros. is more tenuous. The WBD board seems likely to reject their offer of $108.4bn (including net debt), which now has the personal backing of Larry Ellison. Paramount will likely increase its bid when this happens.
So don’t expect this closing anytime soon.
Some more highlights for 2026:
Disney will fully integrate Hulu and Disney+
More horror films (8 are already slated for Q1)
Will the film industry find a much-needed new A-list star in their 30s? Josh O’Connor, starring in Steven Spielberg’s summer 2026 film, is a big contender
Most anticipated studio films of 2026:
Spielberg’s Disclosure Day (Universal)
Release: June 12th 2026
Nolan’s Odyssey (Universal)
Release: July 17, 2026
Iñárritu’s Digger (Warner Bros.)
Release: Oct 2026
My top three most anticipated indies:
Ruben Östlund’s The Entertainment System is Down
Gore Verbinski’s Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Trailer (starring Sam Rockwell)
Release: Feb 13th
Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard
Starring Rooney and Kate Mara as twins
It’s going to be a wild 2026!
THE INDUSTRY TLDR
James Cameron now has four films that have made $1bn+ at the box office.
2025 global box office made $33.5bn (vs. $30bn in 2024).
Jafar Panahi (dir: It Was Just an Accident) has appealed his 1-year prison sentence.
Netflix scores $24M in two days with Stranger Things series finale.
Disney will pay $10M to settle DOJ/FTC claims over mislabeling YouTube videos.
Betty Boop and Blondie enter the public domain.
Angel Studios hit 2M paying members.
Samuel Goldwyn Films co-founder Meyer Gottlieb dies at 86.
Tanzyn Crawford joins Netflix’s live-action Assassin’s Creed
Jeremy Allen White in talks for A24’s Peaked.
One Battle After Another wins Critics Choice.
Disney+ picks up Irish short Brown Bread & Oscar-shortlisted short A Friend of Dorothy.
Xavier Dolan returns for 9th feature.
WBD and Canal+ expand multi-territory deal as HBO Max enters Belgium & Austria.
Intl box office: France’s 2025 admissions fell 13.6%; China’s rose 20% to $7.41bn
Universal Music Group’s Indian division acquired 30% of Excel Entertainment (Prod Co: Amazon’s Made in Heaven) for $80.1M.
Tessa Thompson goes scorched earth. Click here for more info.
THE INDUSTRY NEWS
James Cameron has now directed four films that crossed $1bn globally at the box office, an unmatched achievement. With Avatar: Fire and Ash joining Avatar, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Titanic. A grand total of roughly $8.6bn and counting. Truly a monumental accomplishment, I guess we are getting Avatar 4 & 5 after all.
This brings us to the…
The total 2025 global box office. Good news: it’s up from 2024, hitting $33.5bn.
Yearly global box-office numbers:
$42.3bn (2019)
$11.3bn domestic
$11.8bn (2020)
$21.3bn (2021)
$25.9bn (2022)
$33.9bn (2023)
$9.06bn domestic
$30bn (2024)
$8.75bn domestic
820M tickets sold
$33.5bn (2025)
$8.87bn domestic
780M tickets sold
So big improvement from last year, mostly driven by China (more on this in international news). But we’re still nowhere near the post-COVID total. Without any major strikes or pandemics, this may be the new box office normal.
Here’s how the studios tracked:
$6.58bn - Disney
$2.5bn domestic
$4.379bn - Warner Bros.
$1.886bn domestic
$3.89bn - Universal
$1.79bn domestic
$1.47bn - Sony
$612M domestic
$1.419bn - Paramount
$553M domestic
$719.6M - Lionsgate
$334.6M domestic
$336M - A24
$254.3M domestic
$177M - Neon
$104.3M domestic
In 2026, we have a new Avengers and Toy Story film this year, so expect Disney to end up back at the top.
Tidbits:
Jafar Panahi appealed his one-year prison sentence and two-year travel ban. He was recently sentenced for what Iranian authorities call “propaganda activities against the system.” Iran has consistently chosen to punish its filmmakers, and it’s important that the international community continue to support these artists and their work.
Netflix may not be a theatrical loyalist, but it’s certainly pleased with the series finale of Stranger Things grossing over $24M of theatrical event revenue at the box office in just two days across 600 theaters. The big-screen success comes in addition to pulling 35M views on the streamer in its debut week.
Mini Tidbits:
Golden Age cartoon gals “Betty Boop” and “Blondie” will enter the public domain this year, as each little lady turns 96. What’s next? Well, in true Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey fashion, a horror film called Boop is already in production.
Disney will pay $10M to settle DOJ and FTC claims that it mislabeled children’s videos on YouTube. The settlement covers 2020–2022 uploads and will require Disney to implement a compliance program.
Angel Studios has reached 2M paying members, but the stock has dropped 53% in 2025.
Obits:
“A gentleman of the old school.” Meyer Gottlieb, the co-founder and longtime president of Samuel Goldwyn Films, has passed away at 86. He’s produced Master and Commander (2003) & Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (2013) remake. Gottlieb leaves behind a lasting impact on independent film.
Dean Williams, veteran Hollywood still photographer (Caddyshack, Batman Returns) and founder of the Central Illinois Film Commission has passed away.
Trailers:
Disney+’s Wonder Man
Cast: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Aquaman), Ben Kingsley
Release: January 27, 2026
Disney+’s The Muppet Show
Cast: Sabrina Carpenter, Seth Rogen
Release: February 2026
Elevation Pictures’ The Mother and the Bear
Premiere: TIFF
Trailer (this is very beautiful)
Now playing at IFC in NYC
First Look:
Lionsgate’s Michael
Cast: Jaafar Jackson
Teaser (via X)
Release: April 24
Release Dates:
Paramount’s Passenger
Director: André Øvredal (The Autopsy of Jane Doe)
Release: May 29, 2026
Bad Robot’s The Great Beyond
Previously Untitled J.J. Abrams-directed film
Release: 2026
Amazon MGM Studios’ I Play Rocky
Release: November 2026
Production Wraps:
Paramount Network’s The Madison
Yellowstone spin-off
Season 2 wrapped
Shoot Dates:
Red Death
Dir: Charlie Polinger (IFC’s The Plague)
Cast: Mikey Madison
Shoots: Feb 2026
Tessa Thompson goes scorched earth. Click here for more info.
THE ACTOR SPOTLIGHT
Tanzyn Crawford (Tiny Beautiful Things) has joined Netflix’s live-action Assassin’s Creed as a series regular. The thriller, based on Ubisoft’s video game series, tracks a secret war between assassins and templars across key historical eras, with production targeting Italy in 2026. This marks Crawford’s second major IP television role, following HBO’s Game of Thrones prequel A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.
Mini Tidbits:
Jeremy Allen White, coming off a Golden Globe nomination for Deliver Me From Nowhere, is in talks to join A24’s Peaked, directed by and co-starring Molly Gordon (The Bear). The comedy follows two former high-school queens crashing their reunion.
Vinnie Jones returns to the Guy Ritchie universe for Layer Cake follow-up Viva La Madness, reuniting with Jason Statham decades after Lock, Stock and Snatch.
Paul Mescal revealed he’ll be stepping back from acting briefly. But next up, he’ll play Paul McCartney in the Beatles biopics in 2028.
Three Obits:
Victoria Jones, the daughter of Oscar-winning actor Tommy Lee Jones, has shockingly passed away. Her acting debut was alongside her dad in 2002’s Men in Black II, as well as his directorial debut, the Cannes premiering western The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada (2005). Our hearts go out to the Jones family.
Aw Sheeeit. Legendary actor Isiah Whitlock Jr. has passed away at 71. Known best as Clay Davis on The Wire (remember his iconic line). Frequent collaborator with Spike Lee, Whitlock also had a notable role in Veep.
Jon Korkes, actor and Stella Adler teacher, known for Catch-22, has died at 80. He will be missed.
Tessa Thompson goes scorched earth. Click here for more info.
FESTIVALS
One Battle After Another wins Best Film at the Critics Choice Awards and the National Society of Film Critics Awards.
The odds are getting better and better for One Battle. Seven out of the last eleven times the Critics Choice Awards aligned with Best Picture for the Oscars.
Full snapshot of Critics Choice Awards winners here.
Screenplays:
Read Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man screenplay, written by Rian Johnson; Janus Films’ Peter Hujar’s Day screenplay, written by Ira Sachs (fantastic dialogue example); and Lionsgate’s The Long Walk screenplay by J.T. Mollner.
Plus twelve more prospective Oscar scripts:
https://theindustry.co/p/prospective-best-screenplay-academy-dbf
INDIE FILMMAKER SPOTLIGHT
Disney+ picks up two shorts:
A Friend of Dorothy
Oscar-shortlisted
Dir: Lee Knight
Cast: Miriam Margolyes (Professor Sprout in Harry Potter), Alistair Nwachukwu (Netflix’s Shadow and Bone)
Brown Bread
Dir: Shaunagh Connaire (prod. Outside Noise), former producer from George and Amal Clooney’s Foundation for Justice
Plot: modern take on an “Irish emigration story.”
Coming-of-age faith comedy Ethan Bloom is acquired by Menemsha Films (Auction) for North American distribution. From director Herschel Faber (Caveman), the film follows a young boy who, instead of preparing for his upcoming bar mitzvah, feels called to the Catholic church.
Retirement isn’t forever. French director Xavier Dolan (Cannes-winning Mommy) is returning to filmmaking for his ninth feature project, described as “an amalgam of lots of genres.” Set to shoot fall 2026.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
HBO Max has just reached a “major milestone.” Parent company Warner Bros. Discovery and France’s Canal+ have agreed to a multi-year, multi-territory deal strengthening their long-standing partnership. The deal extends WBD’s film portfolio to be available across Canal+ territories.
The pact brings HBO Max to Belgium and Austria, also renewing distribution access in Europe and across Africa. The deal is especially beneficial for Canal+, which already has distribution plans lined up with Netflix amid the streamer’s pending acquisition of Warner Bros.
International Box Office:
Despite some big box office hits, France’s 2025 ticket sales are noticeably down from the year prior, dropping 13.6% according to France’s National Cinema Centre (CNC). The top-performing films measured in Europe by theatrical admissions:
Disney’s Zootopia 2 (6.18 M)
Disney’s Lilo & Stitch (5.1 M)
Avatar: Fire and Ash (4.58 M)
While Europe’s higher ticket prices haven’t helped theatrical growth, China’s market is surging 20% higher ($7.41bn) than it was last year. Leading the rebound was local sequel Ne Zha 2 that grossed a whopping $2.13bn, breaking box office records worldwide.
ON THIS DAY
1945. Pepé Le Pew debuts in Warner Bros. cartoon “Odor-able Kitty.”
Written by Gabriel Miller, Spencer Carter, and Madelyn Menapace.
Editor: Gabriel Miller.
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